Uncovering the Cliff

Well, that was fun.

Last week, we posted a podcast episode diving into something that we, along with other camp researchers, consultants, and practitioners, have been exploring about the upcoming enrollment cliff that camps across the country will soon face. To say the least, it sparked deep thought and kindled conversation among camp leaders and enthusiasts. We heard from many of you who sent it on to board members and colleagues. First, thank you. Second, most good things come from listening and dialoguing, so let us extol you for diving in and asking others to jump in with you.

In case you missed it, we’re embedding the episode right here so you can listen back. Below, we’re sharing some additional information and a graphic that illustrates what we’re exploring. At the end of the episode, we offered seven ideas on how to get ahead of this upcoming cliff. Below, you’ll find more on each of those ideas. If you have ways you’ve already started these conversations, specific ways you’ve already begun implementing these ideas, or additional solutions you’re considering, we’d love to hear them. Drop a comment below, send us a message, or give us a call. 

The momentum started with a conversation Jake, the Sacred Playgrounds Director, had with our friends from GoCampPro on the CampHacker podcast. Be sure to give that a listen! In preparation for the conversation, Jake had a long chat with renowned demographer Ken Gronbach to whom we are indebted for many of the insights we share.

As we shared in the podcast, when you lay out the story thread of camp over the story of demographic shifts through our past and present, you can wonder with wisdom about what’s next. As we follow things like rate of live births, replacement data, diversity, as well as the consequences of milestones like the late ’90’s and early 2000s participation swell, the 2007 peak birth rate, the 2016 election, the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent decline in birth rates, and more, we can then extrapolate the potential impact on camper numbers that follow.

But Wait, There’s More

This demographic wave and its aftereffects will impact the camping industry as a whole, along with other industries focusing on similar demographic segments of the population. For Christian camps, however, there’s a triple play happening that’s worth saying a bit more about before we get into the ideas.

Christian camps will be impacted by the general demographic shift, but there’s more. We’re also contending with a reality we’ve known for a while — most churches aren’t growing, they’re shrinking. Outdoor Ministries Connection camp directors continue to identify church engagement as one of their top threats. Significant portions of more rural churches, many of which surround and support camps, struggle to even find pastoral leadership. If our connection with churches is linear, meaning we view them primarily as a camper source, then it’s a broken model. That’s not the only way, the right way, or the best way, but the truth remains that as the church tries to discern its future, we’re yoked along with it.

As a third factor, many Christian camps report a predominantly white participant base. Yet, many live in communities with increasing racial diversity. As the general population gets more and more diverse, camps will feel this disconnect. In the early 1990s, nearly two-thirds of all babies born in the United States were non-hispanic white. In 2024, that percentage fell below 50% for the first time in US history. Great news for diversity but concerning (convicting?) news for historically white spaces like camp.

What then shall we do, camp leaders? Let’s dive further into the seven ideas we lifted up that could help us get started with some strategies to get ahead of the enrollment cliff. 

#1 Increase market share.

Let’s start by making sure we know what we’re talking about. Market share is your “slice of the pie.” There are some different numbers we could consider, but the quickest, simplest way to look at this would be your total campers divided by the number of possible campers. Camper numbers you likely know. The total possible number of campers takes a little more gathering and discerning. If you truly want to do that math and would like some help, let’s chat. The main point is about the growth in market share. Simply put, if you know the size of the pool is shrinking, and you’d like your camper numbers to stay steady or grow, you’ve got to increase your market share — the percentage of possible participants who are engaging with your camp.

Some of the ideas below begin to address the how, and you’re likely already taking steps in this through your current marketing, recruiting, and retention strategies and tactics. The encouragement here is to know what’s coming, and be ready and willing to try new things, create systems to help you do it better and more efficiently, and to keep track along the way.

#2 Diversify intentionally.

As we began to unpack above, our Christian camping industry presents a less diverse camper population that is out of sync with the public demographics. We have to consider this, both because of the economics and because of our clear call to serve all God’s children, with Jesus giving attention and intention to those on the margins in one way or another. Many camps and camp collectives have taken sweeping, impressive strides in the area of participant diversity. Here are four quick bullet points on how you might move deeper into a purpose and process of intentional diversity.

1. When you have the opportunity to learn and grow with and from diverse communities, take it! If you don’t see an opportunity before you, seek it out.
2. When you have access to special funds or resources to help you increase diversity, take them! Create something with purpose that both diversifies your base and meets your mission.
3. When you have the opportunity to partner with organizations, churches, and communities that serve diverse populations, lean into them. Again, if those opportunities aren’t clear, it’s time to dig in and maybe even create space to gather these people and organizations.
4. Build your staff teams with intentional diversity. Your participant base will often, at least partially, follow.

#3 Seek creative partnerships.

There are different strategies that marketers and communicators use when seeking participation, buy-in, sales, or whatever the desired outcome may be. There are times when mass marketing, or undifferentiated marketing, is what makes sense. Get the information and inspiration to as many people as possible at the top of the funnel, and hope as many as possible come out of the bottom and land on your registration page. Then, there is targeted marketing, where you use strategies to identify smaller, specific groups of like-minded people to focus on, and hope that a larger portion of them opt in.

For camp, there is space for both, often both at the same time. We often do much of the mass method, getting as many brochures out as we can. We struggle with the targeted method beyond the “what we’ve always done” approaches. This call to creative partnerships means looking at groups, organizations, school communities, agencies, teams, and more that serve similar demographics, and all want to do it well. Find the gaps in their offerings, or ways you can serve their needs, and watch what happens. Give special attention to opportunities to get them on-site at camp. Be an incredible host, a strategic partner, and a connector for them, and they’ll reciprocate to the benefit of you both, and to the benefit of those you serve.

#4  Build up campership funds.

As we peel back more layers of these demographics, another influential factor, especially when considered alongside population trends, diversity, and faith community engagement, is the wealth gap. There continues to be increasing wealth in the hands of fewer, and less wealth in the hands of the many. Your future camper families are going to need camp to be both valuable experientially and affordable financially.

Now is the time to add to your campership dollars, asking faithful donors to consider the legacy they leave when they support your ministry operationally so you’re around for a long time, and also your current and future campers, so that they are able to come for a long time, too. These findings may help tell that story, and as we’ve shared many times, the most impactful stories are built of authentic personal narratives + compelling numbers + easy-to-take actions. It may be time for a new fund or inclusion of campership dollars in an upcoming campaign.

#5 Deploy your programs & leaders.

In Luke 10, the 72 are sent out in pairs ahead of Jesus. They meet with people, they join people in their homes, they heal, and they declare the kingdom of God. Jesus deployed his closest followers all the time. We need to follow this methodology for the sake of our ministries and the sake of the Gospel.

Deploying our program and key leaders is a double-impact strategy. When we host off-site day camps, help run youth ministries at under-staffed churches, hold programs in city parks, and bring the joy of camp to the masses, we do two important things at the same time. We live directly into our call to preach the good news, and that would be enough. Instead, we also create energy around our brand and our experience that makes kids say, “I want to go wherever they are” and parents say, “I can trust this place and these people.” When you combine positive energy with established trust, you increase the likelihood of them finding their way to your camp, where the heart of your experience happens. Learn more about traveling day camp from our Camp2Congregation Project!

#6 Invite & create space for adult participants from the peak times of camp engagement.

Camp is for grown-ups, too. We talked deeply about retreat ministries and other adult engagement in a recent podcast episode. Camp enjoyed a bit of a boom in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, in part due to increasing birth rates as shown in the chart above, and just prior to church engagement rates declining. The cohort of adults that grew up as campers and then summer staff members during this boom is now moving into the age where two important things are true — their kids are camper age, and their capacity to donate more regularly or significantly is coming around.

And, these adults are not prone to participating passively. They want to know to whom they are sending their kids, and they want to be a part of it. Again, they have to trust you first, and trust is built collaboratively and experientially. Good thing camp excels at both. It is likely time to expand adult programming through retreats and family camp opportunities, year-round events that get them on site and/or engage them where they are, and simply donation opportunities to get them started as supporters.

#7 Count your people.

On the podcast, we shared that much of this was born from a consequential conversation Jake had with demographer and consultant, Ken Gronbach. These conversations also coincided with a great podcast episode from our friends at The Sherry Group and the Rest Hour Radio Podcast on data-led decision making. The learning for us and for you? You need to count your people.

When we say this, we’re talking deeper than our usual data points – camper numbers and donor dollars. Most of us are tracking those. To understand what’s ahead, and to pay attention to where we are in the midst of it, we need to count in deeper and more sophisticated ways. Some points to consider include, as surface-scratching examples things like: camper retention, both camp-wide and first-time campers, cost per bed, staff retention, cost per staff acquisition, website bounce rate and time on site, registration system fall off, cost per camper acquisition, camper age market share by county or school district, etc.

We’re considering building some systems around counting some of these key data points in a visual, engaging, real-time way. If that would be something helpful and interesting for you, let us know so we have a sense of the energy around this kind of support and system.

When it comes to gathering these insights, the possibilities are many, the impact is what matters. Finding what is influential and informative for you, your board, and your next steps in ministry is what matters.

What’s Next?

Good question. The conversation around this feels like it’s just beginning. If you’d like to chat, like we already have with a few camp leaders, just reach out and we’ll wonder together how this matters for you and yours, and what support would be helpful along the way. Don’t forget to share your expanded ideas or additional thoughts in the comments.